Matt is clearly off his meds. That Colorado game ended 3-1 on a last-minute empty-netter. Crazy bugger.

Anyway, Craig MacTavish has been laying into Dustin Penner something fierce of late, and it's served to fuel the ongoing speculation that MacT is on the hot seat. The man certainly has his failings as a coach -- his power play has always been simple, rigid, and unimaginative, his handling of goalkeepers can charitably be described as questionable, and he likes to perform odd experiments early in the season that needlessly cost the team games -- but I can't imagine why he'd be in trouble right now. I mean, the team's been inconsistent, sure, but they've survived the bulk of what's been a historically awful bit of scheduling on the part of the NHL, and the last game, against Colorado, was by most accounts one of the best on the year. (I wasn't particularly focused on the game, as I was too busy mocking Matt along with Ender and Von Clegg.)

I'm really not that concerned about tonight's game, not only because the team's coming off a good game, but because since the lockout, the Oilers have played the Wings extremely tight. The results from the last three years:

2005-06 Regular Season

• Nov. 3/05: 4-3 EDM (OT)
• Nov. 17/05: 6-5 EDM (OT)
• Mar. 18/06: 4-3 DET (SO)
• Apr. 13/06: 2-0 DET

2006 Playoffs

• Apr. 21/06: 3-2 DET (2OT)
• Apr. 23/06: 4-2 EDM
• Apr. 25/06: 4-3 EDM (2OT)
• Apr. 27/06: 4-2 DET
• Apr. 29/06: 3-2 EDM
• May 1/06: 4-3 EDM (the glorious third-period comeback)

2006-07 Regular Season

• Oct. 21/06: 3-1 EDM
• Nov. 8/06: 3-0 DET
• Nov. 18/06: 4-3 EDM (SO)
• Feb. 23/07: 4-3 EDM (SO)

2007-08 Regular Season

• Oct. 8/07: 4-2 DET
• Oct. 30/07: 2-1 DET (the game where Pouliot made the bad change late in a tied game)
• Dec. 13/07: 4-3 EDM (SO)
• Feb. 26/08: 4-3 EDM (SO)

Summary Stats

• 12 of the 18 games were decided by one goal; only one was decided by more than two.
• 9 of the 18 games went past 60 minutes; two of the six playoff games went to double overtime.
• The W-L records are 7-5 EDM in regular season¹ and 4-2 EDM in playoffs.
• The goal differentials are 35-31 DET in the regular season and 19-17 EDM in the playoffs.

Now, I don't have any advanced statistics on the subject, but I think it's safe to say that this has been a ridiculously close series, and I can't imagine it being much different tonight. So we'll make the bold prediction that this game will be like the last four Oilers wins over the Wings, 4-3 in the shootout: Pisani with two, Hemsky with the tying and winning goals, just like old times.

¹ Note: EDM was 4-1 in SO, so by W-L-T, it's 4-3-5 DET in the regular season. Make of that what you will.

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Mon Nov 17 15:44:00 -0700 2008