Stillnoname: Sports

Story of My Life

Fri, 02 Jan 2009 12:49:00 -0700

If there was some sort of counter for the number of times I'd played a given song in Guitar Hero III, the top three would likely be "One" by Metallica (Medium), "Sunshine of Your Love" AFMB¹ Cream (Hard), and "Story of My Life" AMFB Social Distortion (Hard). The first two because (a) they're awesome songs and (b) I'm good at them on their respective difficulty levels (don't laugh; GH3 is fucking hard, and I'm no Score Hero). The third is a little more difficult to explain, because I have no particular love for the song. I think the thing is that I feel like I could five-star it, but I keep making the same little mistakes, usually messing up either the hammer-ons in the sequences between refrain and verse, or the transition from one repeated note to the next in the main verse riff (one too many or one too few strums). If I could ever get my shit together and do both correctly at the same time, I'd probably nail it, but it's never really happened, and now that I have Rock Band 2, it probably never will.

The Oilers are much the same with their penalty kill. Sometimes they get the shot-blocking right, though this is pretty rare (like the hammer-ons), and sometimes they get the down-ice pressure right, which is a bit more common (like the verse riff), and if they could ever consistently get both down, they'd have a good PK, but other than maybe one or two games this year (like the one or two times I mostly got it together, and wound up with four stars instead of three), it's never happened. Take Wednesday's game (please). The breakdown by situation:

EV: 3-2 Oilers
PP: 3-1 Flames
EN: 1-0 Flames (Sheldon Souray does not count as a goaltender there; if he'd been wearing Roli's pads, he'd have stopped that.)

This group's even-strength play has come around some (+64/-57 to date, though they're still getting outshot), but they're bleeding GA on the penalty kill, and until that's sorted out, they're going nowhere. TSN had a graphic at one point during game showing that while the teams had scored the same number of PP goals coming into the night (30 apiece), the difference in their special teams came on the PK, where the Oilers had been outscored 39-23; make it 42-24 now. Tyler/Mudcrutch uses the rule of thumb that a three-GD difference is worth one standings point, which means that we're talking about six points' difference on the PK alone. As of today, the Flames have 48 points in 37 GP, while the Oilers have 37 points in 36 GP, an eleven-point difference with the Oilers having a game in hand, meaning that if the Oilers' PK had allowed the same number of goals as the Flames', we're only talking about a five-point difference, give or take, which would put the Oilers at around sixth in the conference, exactly where many of us had predicted them; they'd also have the sixth-best PK in the League at 84.9%, right behind CGY, and about where we're accustomed to seeing them in overall list.

Earlier in the year, we could say that if we give it time, things would turn around, but we're almost at the halfway point of the year, and after a brief period where it looked like things were starting to go in the right direction (and as an aside, I think my math on the times shorthanded in this post is off, because of how the scoresheet tabulates things -- oops), the games against Ottawa and Calgary (4 PPGA/8 TS, including the Sens' GWG) put them right back behind the 8-ball. It's maddening to watch, because as Dennis says, you're basically starting the game down 1-0, just like during the late-Salo and Conkkanen eras. We've established by now that MacT has the year with these guys to get their shit together, but if MacT's own core competencies -- faceoffs, shot blocking, and penalty killing -- are what's failing the team, what are the odds that it actually turns around? That is to say, will it turn around because those are his core competencies, and if anyone can fix them, he can, or will it fail to turn around because those are his core competencies, and if he can't get his boys to do them right, what hope do they have?

¹ - As Made Famous By, i.e. a cover. Common in that genre of game until Guitar Hero: Aerosmith/World Tour and Rock Band 2.

Rivalry Night in Canada

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 11:50:00 -0700

Canada vs. USA: 5:30 PM, TSN
Edmonton @ Calgary: 8:00 PM, TSN

I'll be out tonight for once, so I'll see about watching these on PVR tomorrow. For Game 1, we have the first real game of the World Junior tournament. After outscoring their opponents a combined 28-2 in the first three games, Canada finally gets a real test in an American team that's been similarly dominant (24-5, with their game against CZE being much closer than Canada's) and is similarly expected to medal at the tournament. After three games of subpar competition, it'll be interesting to see how much jump the two teams have early. I have really nothing else to say on this, as I haven't been following the tournament as much as I normally do. I blame Shawn Horcoff.

Speaking of, Scorecoff and the Oilers are back in action tonight against the Flames. Kent feels that Iginla hasn't been very Iginla-ish (Iginlian?), which is to say it's a bit of a Jarmoe year. Normally, this would be great news for the Oilers, but as Kent points out, the Flames have more than made up for that with the contributions from their depth players, including Rene Bourque, who got a hat trick against Ottawa on Saturday, and Curtis Glencross, who is who we thought he was, but couldn't dare believe for fear we'd wind up with another Staios contract on our hands. With resurgent Pouliot joining Hemsky on the shelf, Gilbert Brule draws in off Mass. Transit, as reward for doing nothing but bang bodies and score goals down on the farm.

I'm going to be original and predict a crushing 4-1 loss coming entirely from Calgary's secondary scoring (Bourque, Glencross x 2, Lombardi), while Scorecoff continues to rack up the even strength points. Oh, and because Andy asked in one of the Terms of Battle threads years ago, the Raccoons' hockey team appears to have simply been called the Evergreen Raccoons, and it was only Bert who wore the Islanders jersey (this being 1981, when the Islanders were good). Go Canada, Goilers, and go to hell, 2008. You sucked ass.

Oilers Game Day: Is That a Broom on Your Head or Are You Just Happy to See Me?

Tue, 30 Dec 2008 13:57:00 -0700

Since getting lit up in the 9-2 debacle against Chicago, here's a look at how the Oilers' PP has fared:

Dec. 17 @ VAN (2-4): 5/5 at 5v4 (10:36), 0/1 at 5v3 (0:31), 5/6 total (11:07)
Dec. 19 vs. ANA (2-3 SO): 5/6 at 5v4 (11:01), 2/2 at 5v3 (0:43), 7/8 total (11:44)
Dec. 22 vs. PHO (4-2): 4/5 at 5v4 (8:54), 0/0 at 5v3 (0:00), 4/5 total (8:54)
Dec. 26 @ VAN (3-2): 4/4 at 5v4 (7:51), 0/1 at 5v3 (0:42), 4/5 total (8:33)
Dec. 28 vs. NAS (5-2): 1/1 at 5v4 (2:00), 0/0 at 5v3 (0:00), 1/1 total (2:00)
Last five games (3-1-1, 16-12¹): 19/21 at 5v4 (40:22), 2/4 at 5v3 (1:56), 21/25 total (42:18)

First, a very disciplined night for the Oilers on Sunday, with a third-period hooking penalty by Grebeshkov spoiling an otherwise clean sheet (fights notwithstanding). Now, looking at some rates:

5v4: 90.48% conversion rate, 2.97 GA/60
5v3: 50.00% conversion rate, 62.07 GA/60
Total: 84.00% conversion rate, 5.67 GA/60

The first thing we learn from this (small) sample is that 5v3s can fuck your numbers without buying dinner, and that you might want to avoid them against Vancouver in particular. (Though, as an aside, that POG penalty that Souray got on Friday was bullshit. I've never seen it called for batting the puck out of the air with a high stick in three and a half years, and I don't think it should be.) The other thing we see is that the Oilers are actually enjoying a good stretch of penalty killing the last five games. It's been something we've wrung our hands about all year, but it seems like the Chicago game was exactly the kick in the ass MacTavish was waiting for or something, because they've gone back to being more aggressive, and they've even started blocking shots again, at least from what I've been able to see. Now, five games is hardly the sort of thing that will allow one a sigh of relief, but it can temporarily assuage a lot of fears, especially going into a game against a struggling Ottawa team with a middling power-play that still has the talent up front to make your night hell if it all comes together. Oh, and have I mentioned yet, that twat Tootoo put Hemsky out for the rest of the year² with a nose injury?

Bold Prediction: After losing by a combined score of 9-3 to Calgary and Vancouver on the weekend, Ottawa's gotta be hungry. Expect a tight 3-2 Oilers victory, with Gagner and Cole continuing their comebacks and Liam Reddox getting a fourth-liner's goal.

¹ - Ah the SO "goal," which usually counts, except when it doesn't. I've tossed it here, but you can include it if you'd like; doesn't affect me any.
² - Calendar year, i.e. this game and tomorrow's in Calgary at least. PunjabiOil's joke, but a good one.

Don't Look Now

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 11:01:00 -0700

Amidst all the still-unaddressed problems with the team, the Oilers are back in the playoff pack, having beaten Nashville at last, and with sadsack Ottawa on deck before the Big Game on New Year's Eve. Goilers.

Edit (14:24): Of course, it bears pointing out here that they're only two points out of thirteenth by the NHL standings, or a game out of twelfth by the baseball standings, but they're also only a game back of Anaheim and one and a half back of God's Team West, the Vancouver Canucks. The PK's shown some encouraging signs lately, gaining a couple of percentage points on their season-low 73.0% and rising to 28th (!), which gives me hope that if trends continue, the Oilers might still be near the top of that clump, around 6th or 7th, come mid-April.

Oilers Game Day: I Have Nothing Left To Say

Mon, 22 Dec 2008 18:28:00 -0700

Seriously. As long as the penalty-kill is shit, there's not really much point in getting into too much else, because it's going to deep-six this team more often than not. Some encouraging signs from the 3-2 SOL to Anaheim, but by my math, they're still at least twelve goals behind where they should be, and that's the difference between dancing with the Stars and hanging with the likes of Nashville and Phoenix (?!) in the playoff hunt. I remain convinced that this is a playoff team on paper, but I'm becoming less and less convinced that this is a playoff team on the ice.

The big news is that Nilsson has been benched, probably for his half-assed effort on the SHG, so Liam Reddox somehow gets second-line time (what the fuck, MacTavish?). What are the odds Cogliano's up there by the middle of the second? Meanwhile, as LT notes, Phoenix has a lot of kids, but other than maybe Tikhonov, they're performing up to expectation, unlike most of Edmonton's. It'll be close, probably closer than it should be, but I'm hopeful we can end this thing on a good note before Christmas. Call it 4-3 Oilers, with not a single person over 25 on the scoresheet, except for O Captain My Captain, Ethan Moreau, who will notch his customary pair of hair-pullingly stupid penalties. Goilers.

Oilers Game Day: Guaranteed Loss Night

Fri, 19 Dec 2008 17:57:00 -0700

Let's see...

Pay per view game? Check.
Third jersey game? Check.
New lines, including breaking up the only consistently productive line we've had all season? Check.
Souray-Visnovsky back as a power-play pairing again, because Lord knows that worked the first four times MacTavish tried it? Check, if last game is any indication.
Playing the backup goalie? Check.
Positive GDT at Lowetide's? Check.

Oh yeah. We're fucked.

Bold Prediction: 4-1 Ducks. The Prodigal Douchebag with the power-play hat trick, followed by Penner with the meek reply and Marchant with the empty-netter. Oilers get booed off the ice for the second time this year.

Well Shit

Thu, 18 Dec 2008 17:58:00 -0700

Ender called this months ago, but it's now official: Sundin's a Canuck.

Because we needed a divisional opponent to get better at a time like this.

Oilers Game Day: Penguins Are Eating My Spleen Edition

Wed, 17 Dec 2008 13:21:00 -0700

Okay, so I'm sick as fuck and mildly delirious on lack of sleep, Tylenol 1, and having just finished writing an exam under the aforementioned conditions.

The Oilers followed up one of their best efforts of the season Saturday with one of their worst. I get that the kids probably aren't going to block many shots, but what's with all the veterans who normally do all the blocking suddenly growing vaginas? I mean, shit, boys, it's called hockey, not a dance recital; that flamingo bullshit won't get you anywhere in this game.

The Oilers meet a Canucks team that, according to Temujin anyway, is also shit in ceremonial games, so this should be a case of the movable object meeting the resistable force, which is always good for a laugh, in a retarded sort of way. A Calvinball game is just as likely as a hockey game.

Oilers win, ooga to booga. Horcoff seizes the lead in the third by yanking Pavol Demitra's mask and claiming his goals, then Gagner declares victory when he "accidentally" impales Ryan Kesler on the flag. Canucks players are livid, but the referee just sort of shrugs and says, "it's Calvinball."

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go curl up with a good movie and pray for swift, merciful death. Goilers.

Fun With Text Messaging

Sun, 14 Dec 2008 21:11:00 -0700

I received this from Matt at 8:09 last night:

Game time. [VonClegg] says you're going down.

To which I respond:

In other news, thanks to an over-eager nephew, I wound up getting this Christmas present from my sister a week and a half early. Sweet; now I need this to accompany it. Hint, hint.

Sorry about that

Fri, 12 Dec 2008 11:48:00 -0700

Sorry about the downtime. The server apparently went kablooie, and they needed to take it down for the night. It's (obviously) back up now.